Pass/Fail Probability Engine
We’re finalizing the item-response theory correlation between the newest NBME forms (30 & 31) and the standardized Step 1 passing threshold (~196).
Meanwhile → Focus on hitting >68% on NBME self-assessments
Calibrated exclusively for the Pass/Fail era (Post-Jan 2022) • Accurate Probability Analytics
Step 1 NBME Correlation and Prediction Analytics
Since USMLE Step 1 transitioned to a PASS/FAIL scoring system in January 2022, the strategy for preparation has fundamentally changed. The goal is no longer to secure a 260+, but to cross the passing threshold (equated to approximately a 196) with absolute statistical certainty.
NBME Form Correlation: Modern predictors must abandon the older 3-digit score models. Instead, we analyze your "Equated Percent Correct" on recent NBME self-assessments (Forms 25 through 31). Historical data clearly dictates that consistent performance above 65-68% correlated to an extraordinarily high pass rate before the scoring transition, and this mathematical anchor remains the gold standard today.
Free 120 and UWorld Significance: The "Free 120" assessment taken within one week of your exam date is the ultimate stamina and question-style benchmark. Paired with your UWorld QBank first-pass analytics, our probability engine establishes a confident percentage reflecting your passing buffer size, preventing false reassurance and unnecessary anxiety alike.
👉 Read the full breakdown of our prediction methodologyStep 1 Predictor FAQs
Will you provide a 3-digit score equivalent?
No. Because the actual exam has been PASS/FAIL since Jan 2022, providing a completely speculative 3-digit score yields false reassurance. Our tool focuses strictly on the margin of safety above the passing threshold.
What is considered a "safe" score on NBME practice exams?
Generally, consistently scoring above 65-68% equated percent correct on multiple recent NBME forms (like Forms 30 and 31) confers a 95%+ probability of passing the real exam.
Does UWorld First Pass percentage matter for Step 1?
Yes, while UWorld is primarily a learning tool rather than an assessment tool, completing UWorld with an average above 60% historically correlates with a very high Step 1 passing likelihood.